NFL Offense Analytics Overview 🏈

All right, so while Codex is down, let me show you something that I've been working on the side, which is, NFL offense overview.

So I'm trying to analyze and understand better the.

By the lens of the offense, mainly specifically, EPA metrics.

What is going on?

So let's reset the filters.

It's a pretty big report.

So we have a lot of data data here.

like overview, comparing periods when like full 2025 versus 2026 to date.

I was looking at Patriots performance.

Also.

Game lens is interesting.

There's even a field here that.

Let me show you something that is cool.

So let's take one possession here a touch.

This touchdown.

Wait.

Okay, this touchdown, we can play it now and see what happened.

So it's telling us here.

What happened was a run.

Deep right pass, deep right pass.

penalty short left run, actually.

Sorry.

It was a drive.

Four and a lot of ten plays actually.

So see what happened.

It's a run and it's an incomplete pass.

It's a complete their pass and then it advances.

Penalty complete Pass again.

Advance run.

Completes a pass.

Advance again.

Completes a pass and advance again.

Run for the touchdown.

Cool, right?

This was in the Green Bay game.

but we can change here.

Actually, let's go back to the compare periods because this is one of my favorite things to see, which is comparing now we're comparing New England, full 2025 versus 2026 to date.

So as you can see, the Patriots had one of the best.

Actually this was, I think best or second best EPA per drive last year, 0.30.

And now it's negative, for passing.

If we change to rushing, it's the same story.

But let's focus on passing.

And you can see that every metric on offense pretty much has dropped or overall metric.

EPA per drive per drop back.

the completion percentage.

Percentage, percentage.

Why can't I say that?

Over expectation.

and the positive EPA play rate.

This one is a new metric that I've added.

I'll talk about it later.

And then when you start to go back, go down here, it will allow you to compare the left one, the previous year on the right, the current situation.

and as you can see, like for instance in this where the offense went in each period, each period meaning previous year and now current season.

So the Patriots have a positive APA pretty much for every combination of short and they pass to the left, the middle and to the right.

Now it's 50, 50 and less concentrated on deep passes, especially on the left and middle and More on the short left.

and then you can compare field position at the snap.

When the Patriots last year, wherever they were pretty much they were successful.

and now only when they are inside their own territory, which is interesting.

where the play went.

This we have seen down in distance pretty much last year only 25% was not great or even less than that.

was really bad on 4th down long which is kind of expected.

Was only one play.

and second and medium.

Let's say while this year is bad, mostly bad.

they've been great on fourth down though, even though it's just very small sample.

And then we start.

sorry, there's more, drive journey.

We can compare this and this.

I think for comparison of years.

This is not very interesting.

And inside the game.

So you can choose a game, specific game, let's say from this year and see what happened.

this was the last year and this is this year last game.

And what happened was.

Have seen this before.

So for instance, if we choose the touchdown, it shows where it came from.

It started on the opponent half.

there was a big gain, went to the open open.

half there was a.

Not a big swing.

Made it to the.

To the touchdown.

And this is the.

The drive started pretty much at midfield or roughly in the.

Yeah, much midfield.

And how it went down, With the touchdown from four Henderson.

It's a run play actually.

And then let's just change this here.

Yeah, and then we start to compare last year with this year for a different breakdown.

So passing and rushing both have become.

Become worse.

then we only became better with sex and scramble.

You can see it here.

But that's because Not because we are suffering less, we're actually suffering a little bit of more of sex.

7.8% to 8.7% of the snaps on offense.

And we are scrambling a little bit more as well.

But those are costing us less.

That's the interpretation here.

For points expected.

but other than that, like drop backs and interceptions are worst.

And we can see like the death, death of the passes.

So short, deep worst.

Only sacks and scrambles.

We have seen this before.

Best directions.

We have seen this before.

only for no throws.

This is better.

But every other throw it's worse.

Then it starts to get interesting.

So early downs outside red zone, red zone.

And third down outside the red zone.

It's worst.

It's only better.

Fourth down outside the red zone.

Only, only best.

The fourth down, desperation time, yards to go.

Long yardage.

We're actually doing better field position.

We're only doing better when we are in our own territory.

We're also seeing that the formation and the personnel, we don't have the data for this year yet so we can't analyze it.

And then see Pedros are running a little bit of more motion but it's much worse.

The results play action.

A little bit of more play action but it's also worse.

Sorry.

A little bit less play action and it's a little bit worse results.

We are facing pretty much the same amount of blitz but with blitz or no blitz.

This date is not available yet.

this is cool.

Is the quarterback outside the pocket or not?

So we're doing better when the QB is outside the pocket and we are doing that a little bit more.

So that's interesting and you can have a little bit of an idea why or what is driving the performance.

It's NFL week in Brazil and I've been building this let's say report I'm calling Drive Lab to understand the offense performance.

and there's some cool stuff here.

The one that I just added is this.

Let me see if I can find it.

lens.

So this is actually an animation.

So if you select a drive, let's select one specific drive.

This touchdown here, we can actually play it.

So we can see here 10 plays in this fourth drive and if we play it, it's a run incomplete, pass completed, pass advance penalty.

Go back, complete the pass again, advance run, complete the pass, advance run, completes a pass, end zone touchdown.

well you can analyze a lot of stuff here.

I'll probably make a video later like showing everything.

It's better maybe to just give access so people can use it.

but like what every page is doing is like you want to learn about some teams offense.

Go to offense overview.

Then you're going to learn a lot of like there's so much data here, a lot of breakdowns.

you can select one team here.

Let's select New England.

And then you're going to see a lot of stuff.

It goes through the details of a drive.

We are performing really badly.

You can reduce the sample here because it's only this season has just started.

So you can see more information.

Compare period.

So you can compare 2025 versus now to understand why is this dropping so much.

Like why are they so much worse?

gaming lens I just showed you and then you can explore.

This is going to show.

Let me reset the filters.

everything.

So we are saying let's see last season change it here.

So you have a full EPA per drive.

in that metric the Patriots or the extra.

The Bills were the better team followed by the Patriots, Dallas.

The three worst ones were the Titans, the Browns and the Raiders.

And the NFL was pretty much average like zero.

and you can see here in, in a table format you can explore a breakdown.

So I don't know, maybe formation, shotgun on the center field position at the snap and you can filter whatever if you click here gonna see.

Relationships.

You can choose two metrics so the completage percentage over expectation and the full API per drive.

Of course there's a correlation here.

As you would expect the Patriots are the best and the Browns are the worst.

and you can change this here.

So SAC rate, it's also.

Yeah makes sense right?

So more the more you're getting sex the less Is your EPA per drive.

So there's a negative correlation, over time.

Match up.

So if you want to analyze like New England versus the Steelers, what happened, you can see here passing, rushing, others, New England offense, and you can choose the breakdown.

Now in the instance, what worked, what didn't work, etc.

I love this by the way.

so if you come here.

And analyze New England offense, this is the reality of how did, how did every, play went through.

So it starts either on your own half, the opponent's half or the red zone, probably because of a turnover.

And it's going to end with a touchdown, field goal, punt, turnover order, probably time ran out here.

Victory formation, baby.

and you can filter, of course, see all the touchdowns, where did they come from, etc.

So play mix as well to see if it's pass heavy balance or run heavy.

And then interesting enough, I am trying to create, this metric which is the XTO EPA lab, and what it does is try, is trying to account for your good luck or bad luck in fumbles and interceptions.

So we use instead of like just the interception, the raw data of intercept, interception is was that throw, was it worthy of an interception or not, Even if the interception didn't happen, Same thing for the fumble.

Was the fumble recovered or not?

That is more luck than like a good offense or bad offense for that matter.

So here you're gonna see that metric.

So if we see.

Yeah, let's look at last season, passing or no, let's see all.

and look at this table here, the adjustment, the one that adjusted the most, the Raiders.

So they had one of the worst EPA per play and still very bad, but it's a little bit better.

So they were unlucky.

And on the other hand, Chicago was the luckiest one, if we can say that.

and if we filter passing, it becomes even more evident that both the Raiders, the Ravens and Minnesota were unlucky.

Unlucky is not the best word, but got what I mean.

And Chicago again was the luckiest.

So, yeah, that's what I've been doing on my free time.

it took a while for this to come to life because I didn't have a lot of time, but it's cool.

Take a look, let me know what you think.

Cheers.